Krungthai Bank cuts GDP growth in 2023 to 3 percent, expecting growth of 4.6 percent in 2024, warning that Thailand still faces a volatile global economy.
Krungthai COMPASS Research Center lowered the Thai economic expansion forecast in 2023 to 3 percent from the previous 3.4 percent due to the Thai economic recovery weakening. while exports for the whole year may be negative. As for next year, GDP is expected to Expanded by approximately 4.6 percent, with the tourism sector still being an important engine driving the economy, along with additional positive forces from the government's economic stimulus measures.
Krungthai COMPASS assesses that the Thai economy in 2023 will face many constraints. The main factor is the value of exports throughout the year which tends to be negative following the contraction of world industrial production. As for private investment, it may expand lower than estimated due to pressure from the export sector. In addition, government spending is likely to slow down, especially in the 4th quarter of 2023 due to problems with the decree preparation process. .B. Budget for 2024 is delayed, causing disbursement to be lower than usual. by the continuous improvement of the tourism sector It is also the main engine driving the Thai economy to grow. There is also a positive factor from the Free Visa policy that has helped attract Chinese tourists. It is expected that 29.5 million people will travel to Thailand in 2023.
In addition, the recovery of the tourism sector to a more normal state also supports employment and household spending, which are likely to continue expanding in the period ahead. In 2024, it is estimated that the Thai economy is likely to expand by approx. 4.6 percent, with the tourism sector still being an important engine for driving the economy Meanwhile, economic activities will recover to more normal conditions. This will help support employment and household spending with a tendency to expand further.
In addition, the government's economic stimulus measures will be an additional positive force that will support GDP to grow continuously next year. However, the Thai economy is still highly uncertain. from the global economic situation that tends to slow down Especially China, whose domestic purchasing power is still weak. There is also fragility in the real estate sector. In addition, money conditions will be tight from interest rates in major countries next year. will continue to be at a high level It is considered a low risk that reduces purchasing power in the world market and Thai exports. Meanwhile, entrepreneurs still have to face tougher competition from Chinese products.
Source: Thai News Agency