Bangkok, The Thai Rice Exporters Association is confident that this year's Thai rice exports will exceed 8.5 million tons, higher than the revised target of 8.2 million tons, because many countries still have high demand for rice imports, including Indonesia and the Philippines. However, India must be watched. If it continues its policy of banning rice exports until the end of the year, the chances of Thai exports will be high. However, if it allows exports but imposes import taxes on rice, there is a chance that Thai rice will miss the target. They are also concerned that next year, the weather around the world will be good, and all countries that grow rice are highly competitive, so Thai rice prices may definitely drop. Pol. Lt. Col. Charoen Laothamatas, President of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, said that the export figures of Thai rice from January 1 to July 26, 2024 were more than 5.7 million tons, or worth more than 3.4 billion US dollars. It is expected that the average export of 600,000-700,0 00 tons per month for the remaining period of this year will make Thai rice exports exceed the target projected by the Ministry of Commerce from 8.2 million tons to 8.5 million tons, worth more than 5.3 billion US dollars. This is because many countries, such as Indonesia and the Philippines, have a need to import rice from many countries to compensate for the impact of the drought that occurred in the past, which caused a decrease in rice production. Therefore, there is still a need for rice to be stored for domestic consumption. In the second half of the year, there are still worrying factors from the decrease in rice demand due to the increase in global production from the increased amount of rain, and it will be good until next year when it is expected that the world rice production will be high and the price will be competitive, causing the overall rice price to have a chance to decrease. But at the same time, the price of Thai rice, especially the cost of cultivation, is higher than many countries, mak ing it quite difficult for Thai rice to compete with other countries. And importantly, Thai rice varieties do not meet the needs of many countries, most of whom prefer soft-textured rice varieties that Thailand does not have. In addition, it is important to keep an eye on whether India will review its policy of banning white rice exports, which will affect the global rice market, especially the price, which will continue to be a problem until next year. In the long term, we would like the government to solve the problems that have been accumulating for more than 30-40 years, including costs, increasing yields per rai, and importantly, focusing on developing rice varieties, starting from unlocking and amending laws that still prohibit the import of rice varieties from abroad to study and develop them to meet market demand, without worrying only about the price of paddy rice, so that Thai rice can still compete and become one of the world's top rice exporting countries. As for the forecast of world rice expor t volume, according to data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), this year India is still the number 1 rice exporter at 17 million tons, followed by Thailand at 8.5 million tons and Vietnam at 8.3 million tons. However, it is predicted that next year, Thailand and Vietnam's exports will decrease to only 7.5 million tons, while India's rice exports will increase to 18 million tons. Mr. Chukiat Ophaswong, Honorary President of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, said that this year, Thailand has a chance to export rice as high as 8.5-9 million tons, exceeding the target of 8.2 million tons if the situation does not change because the average rice export per month will not be less than 600,000 tons. In the remaining 6 months, if exports can be 700,000 tons per month because the end of the year will be the period when demand increases, combined with the 5 million tons in the first half of the year, the overall rice export this year will exceed 8.5 million tons because it has benefited from t he case of India still banning the export of white rice, including the demand for rice in many countries that is still high due to the drought problem in the previous period. However, we will have to monitor the situation next year because it is expected that the overall rice production will increase in all countries, totaling 528 million tons, an increase of 1.4%, following the weather with more rain, which will affect the competition in terms of price. And the main importing countries will import less rice, especially Indonesia, which the US Department of Agriculture expects to import only 1.5 million tons of rice next year, up from this year's 3.5 million tons. And if India returns to exporting white rice, it will definitely affect the world rice trade market. In addition, there is also the problem of exchange rate fluctuations that affect the determination of rice prices for export. Source: Thai News Agency
Tuesday, September 17, 2024